Past is (not always) Prologue

The sobering nature of Dorian's path of destruction through the Bahamas is evident in these photos.

An AP reporter evacuates his family and pets from their Freeport home (via Twitter video here)

Aerial view of some of the damage in the northern Bahamas (source CBS News, here)

The referenced CBS News piece continues:

As Hurricane Dorian accelerates up the Florida coast, the magnitude of the storm's destruction in the Bahamas is coming into view. Parts of the island nation are in ruins. Much of Grand Bahama Island is underwater.  Two more deaths were confirmed overnight, bringing the official total now to seven. The country's prime minister said he expects that number to rise.

The extent of Dorian's destruction across the Northern Bahamas is immense. As seen from the air over Abaco Island, the damage stretches for miles.  Entire neighborhoods are flattened, homes shredded, shipping containers and boats hurled inland. Some airports now look more like lakes. The terminal of one airport is now shrouded in debris. 

"We are in the midst of one of the greatest national crises in our country's history," said Prime Minister Hubert Minis. "It is going to require a massive coordinated effort to rebuild."  

Dorian pummeled Abaco and Grand Bahama Islands for two days, with 30 inches of rain and a storm surge as high as 23 feet.   The Red Cross says more than 13,000 homes – nearly half the number on those two islands – were damaged or destroyed.

Now a Category 2 storm, but having widened significantly overnight, the storm is moving north and is expected to make landfall (or at least have significant impact) in the Carolinas.

Initially, the experience of the Bahamas underscores two extremely important lessons to remember in hazard mitigation planning:

1.  To play on Shakespeare's famous lines from The Tempest, the past is not always prologue.  Prior, historical precedent or patterns are not always a good predictor of what to expect in terms of future events. Nature still surprises us. Patterns emerge, then dissipate. Significant events can happen and all we can do is be ready for whatever comes our way. A storm of this magnitude had not ever hit Bahamas before and one of this strength had never stalled like Dorian did.

2.  In some cases, no amount of mitigation or preparation (e.g., stronger building codes, boarding up the house, collecting food and water) is enough to save property. If an event is severe enough, as was the case with Dorian in the Bahamas, the only real mitigation option involves saving lives, which means residents must evacuate to a safe location ahead of the storm.  Then, as the Bahamian prime minister is quoted as saying above, the rebuilding must begin.  With evacuation, events may still turn into expensive disasters, but they don't have to be deadly ones.

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To donate to Dorian relief safely and legitimately, please use the linked listing of qualified charities at the Better Business Bureau Giving Alliance




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