"There are really no words. It is pure hell here"

September has been proclaimed National Preparedness Month and it’s ironic that we have spent the first few days of this month consumed with reports about Hurricane Dorian and what was to have been its relentless march across Florida.  What a difference a few days makes.

Over the Labor Day weekend, the monster Category 5 storm stopped and pounded Grand Bahama Island for 24 hours straight. Accounts of 185 MPH winds and 23 foot storm surge prompted a visceral reaction in me, as I thought about the helplessness of so many of the communities on those islands that were, for more than a day, literally underwater.  Images like the one below (from the Weather Channel) only enhanced my unease.

A baby sleeps in a shelter in Freeport, Bahamas yesterday, while disaster swirls outside (Photo Source)

An ABC News reporter in the northern Bahamas said yesterday, "I have seen utter devastation here in Marsh Harbour. We are surrounded by water with no way out. Absolute devastation.  There really are no words.  It is pure hell here.” 

Local leaders called the devastation “historic” and “unprecedented.” It’s the stuff of meteorological nightmares that will put the resiliency of the Bahamian people to the test. As our neighbors, they deserve our full support in rebuilding and in preparing for a future that will likely include more Dorians.

BAHAMIAN HURRICANE MITIGATION

Groups like the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA, a regional inter-governmental agency for disaster management) deployed resources to assist the Bahamas ahead of the hurricane’s landfall.  But how prepared were the Bahamas for this storm?  Obviously, without immediate access to an inland evacuation route to safety, other measures must be taken.  So what were their plans? And do we know if they were implemented?  If so, how effective do we think they’ll be in protecting lives on the islands?

According to press releases by the Bahamian Government National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), the Prime Minister and members of his cabinet met late last week to go over preparedness and response, including plans for the Prime Minister to “address the nation in an appeal for residents to take all necessary precautions to protect themselves and properties.” 

Captain Stephen Russell, Director of NEMA reminded the public that the Hurricane Season runs June 1 to November 30 and that NEMA’s theme for 2019 is [and this is timely] “Be Prepared Bahamas.”  He also recalled that for three consecutive years, The Bahamas was impacted by major storms – Hurricanes Joaquin in 2015, Matthew in 2016 and Irma 2017, which left an estimated $80 million in damage.

Despite this, “we are a resilient nation,” Capt Russell said, adding that the aim is to save lives and minimize the loss to properties and businesses....  The Meteorology Department is keeping a close watch on the Northwest Bahamas and possibly put out advisories for – Andros, Berry Islands, Abaco, and parts of Grand Bahama, New Providence and vicinity.  And, residents throughout The Bahamas are encouraged to remain vigilant and prepared and to take any necessary action should the need arise.

According to Capt Russell, he will partially activate the National Emergency Operations Centre based on the path of Tropical storm Dorian as it tracks over Puerto Rico.  “The Government’s mechanism is ready,” he said, noting that there as a major assimilated exercise held which tested NEMA’s level of readiness should a category 4 storm hit the islands.

A news report from earlier this summer outlined some of the preparations and mitigation activities NEMA was undertaking, including installing enhanced early warning systems like Doppler radar, public communications, and the distribution of informational material to citizens that includes instructions for preparing home and family, contacting emergency services, and where to find the nearest emergency shelters.  It remains to be seen how effective these “soft mitigation” efforts are in response to a very real emergency.

The literal inundation of an island for a day, as appears to have been the case over the weekend, may exceed even the most formidable of mitigation measures; but as Bahamian Minister of Works Desmond Bannister pointed out, building and zoning regulations in the Bahamas have been in need of an overhaul for a number of years. 

The Bahamas’ building codes are going to be amended as mandated by the prime minister in the wake of mass devastation from recent hurricanes and for that to happen no build zones may have to be implemented.  The Ministry of Public Works will either have to expand to every family island, or we shall have to increase the effectiveness of local government in each community.

There is a need to control the construction types in potential surge zones and the construction of the main structural frame, in timber, should be restricted as the failures witnessed in Ragged Island were partly due to non- compliance to the building codes.  Many of our family island communities are traditional fishing villages. It is our duty to support the right of our citizens to remain in their ancestral homes; but at the same time, we must ensure that buildings meet modern safety and infrastructural needs....

The Buildings Control Division has initiated procedures for review of the current codes with the view of either a revision or amendments.  Special emphasis will be placed on incorporating two additional components to improve the country’s environmental sustainability, and mitigation against the effects of climate change particularly recurrent damage due to hurricanes.  The proposed revisions will address sustainability or life cycle of buildings, thermal insulation in buildings (building materials), collection and storage of water, climate change, coastal design and renewable energy.

High sea surges demand that buildings be built higher; and strong winds require that the inspection process in the construction phase is strengthened... There is a need to introduce zonal mapping of areas affected by storm surge so as to create no build zones throughout the islands of the Bahamas.  While some may be concerned as to how the new developments will affect some traditional communities, they ought to know that the new codes are a “quest for safety” and a choice to protect life first and foremost.

The Bahamas’ Deputy Prime Minster K Peter Turnquest, speaking at an event in July, said:

From the international community’s point of view and the multilateral agencies’, they’re focused on resilience, building climate resilience into our infrastructure. Ensuring that as we move forward, that new construction meets the current technical standards that withstands the…more [frequent], stronger storms we’re seeing these days. 

For the Bahamas, we’ve always had a very resilient building code. We do have some infrastructure that is not up to that standard, having been built prior to (strict codes) and we have to see how we can enforce or harden those. But nonetheless the limited resources we have we’re going to continue be vulnerable for some time yet to come.

On the part of the government itself, we are building seawalls we are replanting some of the soft defences: the mangroves and (those) kinds of things to try and cushion as much as we can the effects.  But nonetheless it is a long-term problem that we recognise and that we are trying to be creative and to leverage our relationships and our participation in these international agencies to try and come up with sustainable solutions. And to leverage resources.

Because again, there’s only so much we can afford to do ourselves. Leveraging some of these resources from funds and other participants to help us to again build our hard infrastructure defences as well as our soft infrastructure to as best we can. But again the key is in ensuring that we maintain our building codes.

There is some effort underway with the Ministry of Works as I understand it to improve the building codes and those are key to minimising the amount of damage that happens. 

Because we all know, it’s not if, it’s when.

“When” is upon them. I am hopeful that the promised resilience is evident in the coming months.

WHAT’S NEXT FOR DORIAN?

Dorian has weakened a bit and has been projected to turn to the north and move at a painfully slow pace along the Atlantic shore of the US. States from Florida to Virginia are now prepared to be impacted by high surf and potentially heavy rains. [See map above from linked article.]  Like Hurricane Matthew in 2016, the Carolinas are expecting significant flooding.  Even so, a lengthy, glancing blow is more favorable than a direct hit.

More to come.