In a sad irony, an article published Friday by the National Geographic Society following the earthquake but before the tsunami had struck, asked the question: "Will Indonesia be ready for the next tsunami?" Sadly, the answer (if you read between the lines) was, "no, not really." The day's events bore this out.
Source: National Geographic. From the referenced article. |
The article goes back to 2004 and the cataclismic tsunami that hit southeast Asia. The article notes that, in 2004, tsunami waves hit Sumatra at nearly 100 feet high. As the article admits, the earthquakes are dangerous, but "it was the tsunami that did the killing." The article continues:
Like other countries ravaged by the 2004 tsunami, Indonesia is now linked to a tsunami detection system in the Indian Ocean. Once an earthquake has occurred, that system of seafloor sensors and surface buoys relays signals via satellite to government warning centers around the world, alerting them that a tsunami might be on the way.
A decade ago such detectors existed only in the Pacific. Had they been deployed in the Indian Ocean in 2004, some of the 51,000 people who died in Sri Lanka and India would have been spared: The tsunami took two hours to cross the Indian Ocean, and timely warnings—or any warning at all—would have saved thousands of lives.
But Indonesia—the fourth most populous country in the world—is in a less fortunate situation. It borders a number of dangerous seismic faults, especially a long, arcing one called the Sunda megathrust, which parallels the islands of Sumatra and Java. The 2004 tsunami that began on that fault struck the Sumatran coast within 30 minutes of the earthquake. Even with a near instantaneous tsunami alert, many residents wouldn't have had enough time to reach high ground.
The article offers a sobering conclusion: "Given the sheer numbers of lives at risk, says [Kerry] Sieh, [a geologist at Nanyang Technological University's Earth Observatory in Singapore], there is only so much governments can do, especially in poor countries like Indonesia, to prevent catastrophic losses from the inevitable future tsunamis. 'Is good work being done?' Sieh asks. 'Yes. There are people trying to educate; there are people trying to build vertical evacuation structures. But will it solve even 10 percent of the problem? I have my doubts.'"
Sadly, even before the ink dried on the National Geographic piece, Seih's doubts were known to be based in truth. More, I would urge, must be done.
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