Double Jeopardy

The earthquake that rocked the area that is now Tajikastan in 1911, triggered a massive landslide that blocked the Usoi River, acting as a dam to create a huge lake called "Sarez" in the barren valley.  For over 100 years, the towns and villages downstream from the natural dam have lived with the looming potential for yet another disaster--the failure of the dam and the deluge that would surely destroy them.

The picturesque Lake Sarez hides a deeper, sinister secret. (Beautiful photo from a wonderful travel blog at https://adventuresoflilnicki.com/lake-sarez/)

A recent online article on Ozy.com says such a failure would affect the lives of as many as 5 million people. The article speculates:

So how and why will this dam collapse? Take your pick. The most probable and obvious trigger is an earthquake — not unlike the massive temblor that created the dam and the lake in the first place. Were the dam to break, it could trigger another deadly landslide, but that wouldn’t be the worst of it. The lake’s water could cannon out in a 100-foot-high wave, coursing down established waterways...

It doesn’t have to be an earthquake: Analysts are worried that the Usoi dam could be a target for terrorists, who with one well-placed bomb could cause untold damage to surrounding communities. Even if the dam doesn’t break, a landslide could cause a wave that triggers mudslides and avalanches onto dozens of local villages.

So the obvious question, addressed by the article, is simply "What can be done to mitigate the hazard?"  Unfortunately, the answers don't seem to be easy, nor widely accepted. As a result, none have been implemented.  The article concludes:

In 2000, the World Bank initiated a $4.2 million risk mitigation program around Lake Sarez, but it mostly focused on how to alert the surrounding areas to allow for evacuation in case of a sudden disaster. According to a case study from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, engineering solutions to the dam’s instability are rendered virtually impossible by the remoteness of the lake, which is only accessible by two roads — both closed off for much of the year owing to weather conditions. At a 2007 conference, some advisers recommended Tajikistan explore digging a tunnel beneath the lake to drain some of its 16 cubic kilometers of water and reduce the risk of overflow. Meanwhile, many local scientists maintain that the dam is in no danger of collapsing, which — along with lack of funding — may be why the issue has been largely ignored by the Tajik government since the World Bank program concluded. 

Instead, Lake Sarez is seen as a potential economic opportunity: Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon visited Uzbekistan last month for the first time since taking power in 1992, in part to discuss using water from the lake as drinking water for the two countries. It could, Davlatbekov explains, mitigate the water’s eventual disastrous effect while bringing much-needed money into Tajikistan. 

Whether the two nations can arrange to lower the water level enough in time — when an earthquake could hit tomorrow — remains anyone’s guess.