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Monday, September 10, 2018

Here Comes Florence

Just this afternoon, what was just yesterday Tropical Storm Florence has blossomed in the mid-Atlantic into a full-on Category 4 hurricane. Words like "Catastrophic" and "Monster" are being used to describe her.  Warnings are up along the East Coast of the US--particularly the Carolinas and Virginia. A Weather Channel report online (also the source of these images) includes very dire projections of wind, rain and flooding well inland, over the next week.




States most likely to be impacted have already issued emergency warnings and evacuations are underway for places like North Carolina's Outer Banks. For those of us just outside the immediate area of threat, yet close enough to likewise be concerned, preparation is underway. The bottom line is that, when these threats are made and demonstrated by satellite and other data, there is an opportunity to prepare by leaving the threatened area altogether; or, where there may be no place to go, hardening our places of refuge against the onslaught and acquiring supplies needed to protect and sustain our lives during and following the event.

Hurricanes are typically the kind of events that are quite often very difficult to avoid.  Yes, we can remove ourselves and some of our belongings and prevent injury or harm, but the intermittent frequency and massive scale of a landfalling hurricane make more finite solutions (like avoiding development in the affected area) virtually impossible.  Hurricanes and Typhoons are things we end of living with and preparing to face, if needed.  Even though our modern technology provides better buildings, roads and drainage systems to weather these storms, the real advantage of our 21st Century science is one of time.  Forecasting methods allow us to know days (even a week or more?) in advance of an impending storm event.  The advantage of time can't be overstated.

I was reminded that, at the turn of the 19th Century, things were very different.  In September of 1900, the people of Galveston, Texas were going about their business barely aware that there was a swirling monster about to engulf and destroy their community.  The Wikipedia page about the event describes the city as "a booming town" of nearly 40,000 people.  It says:

Galveston had many ornate business buildings in a downtown section called The Strand, which was considered the "Wall Street of the Southwest."  The city's position on the natural harbor of Galveston Bay along the Gulf of Mexico made it the center of trade in Texas, and one of the busiest ports in the nation.  With this prosperity came a sense of complacency.  A quarter of a century earlier, the nearby town of Indianola on Matagorda Bay was undergoing its own boom and was second to Galveston among Texas port cities. Then in 1875, a powerful hurricane blew through, nearly destroying the town. Indianola was rebuilt, though a second hurricane in 1886 caused residents to simply give up and move elsewhere. 

Many Galveston residents took the destruction of Indianola as an object lesson on the threat posed by hurricanes. Galveston is built on a low, flat island, little more than a large sandbar along the Gulf Coast. These residents proposed a seawall be constructed to protect the city, but their concerns were dismissed by the majority of the population and the city's government.... (By September 8th), the swells continued despite only partly cloudy skies. Largely because of the unremarkable weather, few residents heeded the warning. Few people evacuated across Galveston's bridges to the mainland, and the majority of the population was unconcerned by the rain clouds that began rolling in by midmorning... 

The Hurricane made landfall in the evening of September 9, 1900. It had estimated winds of 145 miles per hour at landfall, making it a Category 4 storm on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale. The hurricane caused great loss of life with a death toll of between 6,000 and 12,000 people; the number most cited in official reports is 8,000, giving the storm the third-highest number of deaths or injuries of all Atlantic hurricanes.... The Galveston Hurricane of 1900 is (the deadliest hurricane ever to hit the US and) one of the deadliest natural disasters ever to strike the United States. This loss of life can be attributed to the fact that officials for the Weather Bureau in Galveston brushed off the reports because the city had "weathered them all" and they didn't realize the threat.


We don't know for sure how different things could have been had warnings been issued and/or taken seriously, but the lesson for us is to take advantage of the time we have now to prepare.

Some useful resources are:

The US Homeland Security/FEMA site on Hurricane Preparedness
https://www.ready.gov/hurricanes

Information and Preparedness Tips from the National Hurricane Center
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/ready.php

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